Projected Infected Persons with COVID-19 in the United States

Updated 4/2/2020 at 7:19 PM PST.

While the damage has already been done to the economy and markets, it’s good to know how much longer this might last. If current trends continue, this is what we can expect:

Data from Worldometers. Infected projection is a 4th degree polynomial.

With the current growth factor projection, we can expect the growth factor to hit 1.0 by April 14-16, then decline after that to 0 at the peak. With this projection, the maximum infected people should be roughly 1.5 million.

A growth factor of 1.0 can be explained in a multitude of ways:
– The point of inflection, where the graph of exponential growth turns into a logarithmic graph.
– The point where growth percentage (day over day) becomes negative.
– The point where the second derivative changes from positive (concave upward) to negative (concave downward).

Overall, we’re doing much better now that we’re taking precautions to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Had we not taken these precautions, the point of hitting a growth factor of 1.0 would’ve come around May 15.

However, consider that this will change if there are data anomalies, if the government is withholding/altering data, if testing kits are less available than they should be, and if people get mild symptoms and go untested. I’d say this graph is a “best-case scenario” if none of these items are true. It is by no means “perfect,” just an estimation based on the data available.

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